{"id":13710,"date":"2022-09-28T10:02:08","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T16:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ulprospector.com\/knowledge\/?p=13710"},"modified":"2022-10-31T13:25:41","modified_gmt":"2022-10-31T19:25:41","slug":"lmf-natural-gas-market-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ulprospector.ul.com\/13710\/lmf-natural-gas-market-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Natural gas market projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: David Tsui<\/p>\n

Natural gas shortages and high prices could change demand for natural gas engine oil. \"\"<\/em><\/p>\n

Natural gas and liquified natural gas<\/strong>\u00a0(LNG) supplies have witnessed global disruptions as the Russian\/Ukraine war forces Europe to turn to alternate sources of natural gas and LNG, which will drive shortages in other regions as Europe bids up the prices. This could drive changes in the type of natural gas engine oil (NGEO) consumed as the natural gas supply chain is altered and engines start to see more variable sources of fuel.<\/p>\n

Natural gas is acting as a transitional fuel source as the world shifts toward fully renewable energy. Recently, Europe has confirmed this continued usage of natural gas, with the European Union (EU) voting in favor of calling natural gas a \u201cgreen\u201d or \u201csustainable\u201d source of energy despite some pushback. However, there is one caveat: a further transition toward biogas or green hydrogen and other renewable gases by 2035. This is a good sign that natural gas power generation units will have a solid future in the energy mix of tomorrow. Kline expects global gas consumption to remain strong as global economies recover from 2020 declines caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related shutdowns\u00a0(see Figure 1).<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 1.\u00a0<\/strong>Global natural gas production and consumption trends, 2011 to 2020.<\/p>\n

Production of natural gas has only slowed slightly; however, the supply chain and sourcing for natural gas have seen dramatic shifts that began when Russia invaded Ukraine and the United Nations (UN) began to impose sanctions on Russian natural gas. The EU also has implemented changes in its sourcing for natural gas and halted Russia\u2019s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. In response, Russia\u2019s Gazprom is limiting natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20%\u2014just as European energy consumption hit record levels, with natural gas being burned to meet electricity demand from a historic heatwave, which caused temperature spikes of more than 104 F (40 C) in some countries in July 2022. This is hindering Europe\u2019s plans to maximize its gas stores before winter should Russia cut Europe completely off from natural gas.<\/p>\n

\n

Looking for engine oil?<\/h3>\n

Prospector has hundreds of materials from global suppliers. Find technical data, promotional material, supplier contacts, and more in Prospector.<\/p>\n

Search engine oils<\/a> now<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

The rapid strategy shift away from Russian-sourced natural gas, which had supplied 40% of Europe\u2019s demand with more planned as Nord Stream 2 was to come online, has caused Europe to tap into other sources including LNG imports. In 2021, 45% of European LNG imports were sourced from the U.S., and another 20% was sourced from Qatar. This shift has helped drive up prices and will likely cause supply shortages for poorer nations\u00a0(see Figure 2).<\/em>\u00a0(For more information on the EU\u2019s emerging power generation scenario, visit\u00a0Kline\u2019s blog<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

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Figure 2.<\/strong>\u00a0The shift of LNG imports in Europe helped drive up prices and will likely cause supply shortages for poorer nations.<\/p>\n

According to Kline\u2019s recently published Natural Gas Engine Oils: Global Market Analysis and Opportunities study, the change in gas sourcing will help drive growth in new pipelines and liquefication and gasification facilities, as well as expedited investment in renewable gases such as green hydrogen and bio or landfill gas. This, in turn, is likely to drive demand for NGEO more suited to handle various fuel sources that could include a mix of hydrogen and gas or sour gases from landfills.<\/p>\n

Kline projects growth in low ash and medium ash NGEO, along with products formulated to better handle a more variable Wobbe Index (WI) and greater levels of contaminants or water. NGEO demand, globally, is expected to exceed 500 kilotons by 2026 and grow at almost a 4% CAGR, with some regions outpacing others\u00a0(see Figure 3).<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 3.\u00a0<\/strong>NGEO demand projection, 2021-2026.<\/p>\n

For more information on this subject, see Kline\u2019s recently published Natural Gas Engine Oils: Global Market Analysis and Opportunities report. A comprehensive analysis of the global NGEO lubricants market in the wake of record natural gas prices and global turmoil, it focuses on key trends, developments, changes, challenges and business opportunities.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Excerpted and reprinted with permission from the September 2022 issue of Tribology and Lubrication Technology<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(TLT), the official monthly magazine of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers, an international not-for-profit technical society headquartered in Park Ridge, Illinois..<\/p>\n

\n

About the author<\/h3>\n

David Tsui is a Project Manager at Kline & Company in the Energy practice. You can reach him at\u00a0david.tsui@klinegroup.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

About STLE<\/h3>\n

\"SocietyThe Society of Tribologists & Lubrication Engineers (STLE) is the premier technical society serving the needs of over 12,000 individuals and 250 companies and organizations that comprise the tribology and lubrication engineering business sector. STLE members are employed by the world\u2019s leading corporations, academic institutions and by governmental agencies dealing with science and technology. STLE supports these distinguished technical experts with a variety of professional education and certification programs.<\/p>\n

The views, opinions and technical analyses presented here are those of the author or advertiser, and are not necessarily those of ULProspector.com or UL. The appearance of this content in the UL Prospector Knowledge Center does not constitute an endorsement by UL or its affiliates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: David Tsui Natural gas shortages and high prices could change demand for natural gas engine oil. Natural gas and liquified natural gas\u00a0(LNG) supplies have witnessed global disruptions as the Russian\/Ukraine war forces Europe to turn to alternate sources of … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":13711,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[607,261],"tags":[442,521,699],"ppma_author":[1237],"class_list":{"0":"post-13710","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-articles","8":"category-lubricants-metalworking-fluids","9":"tag-lubricants","10":"tag-stle","11":"tag-natural-gas","12":"entry"},"yoast_head":"\nNatural 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